Your Bitcoin is up, but you’ll need that money in 1-2 or 6-12 months. What do you do right now?

hey everyone i like to do videos about Bitcoin when I get questions from people because it gives me a good uh indication of what would be valuable to talk about so I have talked to multiple people this week who are all in the same position which is they have Bitcoin that was bought somewhere between $40,000 and $90,000 and they're up on that Bitcoin up at $105,000 uh right as I were start recording this it's 105,500 so halfway between 105 and 106,000 per coin and so they're up uh some as much as more than double uh almost triple others that are just up you know 10 or 15% or I guess that'd be whatever 15 20% or 25% things like that and they have a need for some of that capital that is stored in the form of Bitcoin in the next month or two or in the next 6 or 12 months in some cases it's people that need to buy a car or a house and so as soon as that opportunity presents itself they will need access to that capital in other pl uh uh situations it's people that want to make investments or have other capital needs that are longer term more in the six or nine or 12 months case but in all cases they will need some of that capital over time so the question is what do you do in a situation like that because you've got to make a choice do you sell the Bitcoin at 105,000 per coin and lock in the gain you have and then guarantee that you'll have exactly the capital you need for whatever it is you need to buy in the next month or two or even in the next 6 or 12 months or do you leave it in Bitcoin and try to capture as much of the upside as possible well so I can't answer that question for you because one I'm not a financial analyst so everything I offer is just uh my uh personal opinion but I can give you some helpful frameworks to think about it okay so the first way to think about it is probabilities what is the probability that you will be up on that Bitcoin versus down and I'm going to record a separate video that talks about the likelihood of a you know major price correction in Bitcoin prior to you know a parabolic rise um I'll do a video immediately after this one that talks about that so let's for for for for this case I'll just use probabilities of let's call it 7030 so I would say there's a 70% chance that leaving the Bitcoin in the form of Bitcoin will end up better for you in the near term than otherwise uh than liquidating it now 7030 in your favor meaning I would say you have better than 2 to1 odds leaving it in Bitcoin the problem is that leaves a 30% chance that you're going to end up on the wrong side of that and that Bitcoin will go through a price correction at the worst possible time for you meaning you have to liquidate it at a price that potentially is lower than you paid for it if you have Bitcoin you bought bought in the high price range now if you got Bitcoin you bought it in the 40,000s or 50,000s I don't think we'll ever see those prices again so I don't even think it's possible uh that Bitcoin drops below uh let's call it below 50,000 i think it's extremely improbable it drops into the 60s um but it's not it's not completely impossible it drops into the 70s we've seen prices as low as uh just under $75,000 as recently as earlier this year and if it can do it once it it certainly is capable of doing it again now like before I think we'll stay down there for a very short period of time i think if we do dip below $80,000 or below $75,000 it's going to be for a very short time period and then it will you know you know come tearing back up uh just like it did this last time we stayed below 75 I don't know for a day or hours some some some number of hours or days it was not weeks and even in the you know 80,000s we were not down there very long um a series of weeks or whatever it was but it just wasn't that long so if you're patient a little bit you know it bounces right back um but in the next video I'll talk about the probability that we go through an extended bare market and what that feels like and how to think about it but I think there's you know 7030 the odds are in your favor and um so then it comes to uh down to what is your risk appetite how how uh effectively can you handle a downturn if Bitcoin's in a downturn do you have other capital that you can uh can deploy instead so let me run some scenarios for you let's say you have Bitcoin in retirement accounts and you're in your 40s like I am i'm 45 then I would say of course leave it in Bitcoin there's absolutely no benefit to pulling it out of Bitcoin you do not want to time the market you do not want to try to you know buy sell high and buy low you're going to always screw that up everyone always does don't try that so if your Bitcoin is in retirement accounts you don't even have to think about it you just leave it there okay but what if you're right up at retirement you're retiring in the next year or two i would say okay how badly do you need that money that's in the form of Bitcoin is it 100% probable that you're retiring and is there no conceivable way you can get capital from o some other source uh in a dip and if the answer is you absolutely have to have that capital and there's no other source you can possibly get it from then I would say well that's a tough situation to be in and you might need to liquidate some of that to create a cushion to create a buffer to make sure that you're not stuck selling Bitcoin when it's down and at a minimum you can get $105,000 for it right now um but again it's painful to do that because you know we could you know run up to $1 150,000 or $180,000 per Bitcoin by the end of the year that's certainly possible we don't know um so it's obviously painful to liquidate it at 105 when it can run up there and even if it pulls back after that you know it could be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars in the next 2 or 3 years so it's just you know painful to liquidated at 105 with that much upside in the future but again if it all comes down to your risk appetite and the flexibility of your capital how many different ways can you access capital and how desperate are you to not sell when you're down so that's a individualized decision and so uh I know people for example that have set aside money in the form of Bitcoin to buy a car but they're also not they don't have to have a car now they just want a car in the not too distant future and you know their cost basis is in the $70,000 range so they're way up on that they can afford a much nicer car or they can uh buy the same car they would have bought otherwise and pocket the difference because they're up you know 40% or something like that on their money um but there but you know some of those situations the person is very flexible if Bitcoin goes through a prolonged downturn they can wait an extra year or two to buy a car so I know people in that situation i know people in the situation where uh they don't have any flexibility they're going to absolutely need that money in the near term but they do have other sources of capital that they could draw on and so they don't have to liquidate Bitcoin if it's down temporarily and then again I know other people who are like you know what I've got actually I I don't technically know anybody I don't think I know anybody that absolutely positively has zero flexibility no access to any other capital whatsoever absolutely could not ride out even the you know the slightest downturn i just don't know anybody in that situation everybody I know who I've talked to uh you know which is a fair number of people over the last couple weeks um everybody's got some flexibility they've either got some flexibility where they can delay the purchase of a car or they can finance a larger percent of a house or they can draw on other resources um or you know in an emergency situation there's people who are uh open to taking out a home equity line of credit uh or you know some other sort of you know borrowing against a 401k plan things like that although I universally advise people to not borrow money certainly do not borrow money to buy Bitcoin um if you if you borrow money to avoid having to sell Bitcoin that's different um it's certainly better if you if you're going to borrow money it's certainly better to borrow it to avoid selling Bitcoin rather than to borrow it to buy Bitcoin i would not recommend anyone borrow money to buy Bitcoin or any other investment but even in my situation I have borrowed money to avoid selling Bitcoin i financed my 2026 Tesla Model Y that I just bought a couple months ago i could have easily liquidated Bitcoin and bought that Tesla but instead I financed it for 5 years at a 6% interest through Trust Mark and I did that to avoid selling whatever it was whatever percentage of a Bitcoin it would have cost to buy that thing brand new which is what I otherwise would have done i would have just bought it straight up with Bitcoin but I didn't want to liquidate that Bitcoin so now I have a car payment first time in my life I've ever had a car payment not because I need a car payment i could easily pay it off at any time but because I just didn't want to part with that Bitcoin i would I would rather have sat on that Bitcoin than part with it and at the time I purchased the car Bitcoin was 80 at $85,000 per coin so now Bitcoin's up at $105,000 per coin which means the payments I'm making on that car are pretty significantly discounted because I'm I'm paying with $105,000 Bitcoin but I financed it it with you know at the time Bitcoin was $85,000 which is what I would have had to liquidate if I had liquidated the Bitcoin to buy the car back in March at uh $85,000 so uh so even I have taken out a loan in my case to buy a Tesla uh that I otherwise would not have to avoid selling Bitcoin um so again I do think about that differently i would not take out a loan to buy Bitcoin but I have taken out and do have a loan taken out to avoid selling Bitcoin um so anyway everybody's situation's different and and it also depends on your risk appetite some people are very conservative and they just really don't want to lose money no matter what and one of the downsides of trying to make sure you absolutely don't lose money no matter what is you have to invest much more conservatively which is unfortunate because it means your potential returns are much lower i am a person who has a very high risk appetite and I don't mind you know riding through a downturn and in the next video that I record immediately after this I'll tell everybody you know what's that what that's like and what the future might hold and what it's going to feel like and all that sort of stuff and um you can make your own decision but again it all comes down to how much capital do you need when do you need it how painful will it be if the price of Bitcoin is down at the time you do need it do you have any other sources of capital you can use uh so that you can avoid uh using that capital and uh anyway that's sort of the highlights and I will in a minute here record a video about how to uh you know the different ways things could play out over the next six to 12 months for Bitcoin so have a great night everyone thanks