Which will come first, a huge rise in the price of bitcoin, or a significant price correction?

00:01 hey everyone which will come first a 00:04 huge increase in the price of bitcoin or 00:07 a significant price correction in the 00:09 price of bitcoin i want to walk through 00:11 the likely uh you know sort of the 00:13 supporting facts of one versus the other 00:15 and give you some things to think about 00:17 on each good evening 00:20 good 00:21 okay so let's walk through uh the the 00:24 best thesis about a huge price increase 00:27 uh in the price of bitcoin is made by 00:29 jack malers m a l l e r s with the jack 00:32 morer show uh on monday of this week 00:35 this past week so you can see that on 00:38 youtube i posted the link on youtube on 00:40 monday night of this week or i posted 00:43 earlier today i i posted a link to that 00:46 uh jack maller show on apple podcast so 00:50 you can go get it from monday on the 00:52 youtube link or you can get it from the 00:53 apple podcast link today uh jack malers 00:56 makes the strongest case for the 00:58 government of the united states about to 01:00 print just a boatload of money as a 01:04 necessity because they don't have a 01:06 choice and that's going to absolutely 01:08 result in a significant price increase 01:10 for things that humans cannot make out 01:12 of thin air like bitcoin so if you want 01:15 to see the strongest case on that front 01:17 i'm not going to reiterate all the 01:19 points that jack malers makes because 01:21 you can just go watch it yourself and i 01:23 thought it was really fantastic and uh 01:25 the episode is titled saying they're 01:27 saying the quiet part out loud so that 01:30 episode the quiet part out loud or now 01:32 they're saying the quiet part out loud 01:33 or anyway it has the words quiet part 01:36 out loud in it and that does the best 01:38 job of making the case that the 01:40 government is about to print just a ton 01:43 of money and that they have no other way 01:45 out of the massive debt spiral uh that 01:48 they are in so that i think is the high 01:51 probability of the more than 70% 01:53 probability that we see a huge price 01:55 increase in the price of bitcoin because 01:57 central banks around the world are 01:59 cutting interest rates meaning they're 02:01 printing money and the federal reserve 02:04 is so far refusing to do that there's a 02:06 standoff between jerome powell and 02:08 donald trump with jerome powell trying 02:11 to keep interest rates high um and 02:14 donald trump and others trying to force 02:16 him to lower them and i will not go into 02:18 all the politics of that again you can 02:20 watch the jack morers uh podcast and he 02:23 does a really good job of laying all 02:25 that out okay on the flip side the sort 02:28 of pessimistic uh concerns that could 02:31 lead to a bare market meaning a down 02:33 market um are probably best expressed by 02:37 safodine amos the author of the bitcoin 02:39 standard i posted a clip uh from him 02:42 earlier this week and i posted a full 02:44 podcast interview with him today so if 02:47 you want to see uh hear more of the bear 02:49 case meaning the pessimistic case uh you 02:52 can hear it from safodine amos uh or i 02:55 posted uh some of the links uh earlier 02:58 this week to james czech who goes by 02:60 checkmate who is my favorite bitcoin 03:02 analyst and he basically says "look a 03:04 ton of bitcoin is being bought up by 03:06 corporations uh bitcoin treasury 03:08 companies they're called and um you know 03:11 that's unarguably they're buying like a 03:13 ton of bitcoin and that is creating a 03:14 ton of demand and part of that's the 03:16 reason bitcoin is holding above $100,000 03:19 but other indicators are that the demand 03:22 that you know retail for example retail 03:25 investors meaning average just people uh 03:28 the the you know the the buzz is really 03:30 low right now like the total number of 03:32 search terms for the word bitcoin is 03:34 super low the total number of people 03:36 talking about bitcoin is super low the 03:39 total amount of transactions on the 03:41 bitcoin network that indicate new users 03:43 are joining and moving bitcoin around is 03:46 pretty low as uh as compared to 03:48 historical examples now a lot of that is 03:50 because people are just moving bitcoin 03:52 around uh on coinbase or on river but 03:55 every time you move bitcoin for example 03:57 to bitkey or off of bitkey you got to do 04:00 that on the bitcoin main chain and those 04:03 kind of transactions are relatively uh 04:05 low now some of that is because people 04:08 like me uh don't move bitcoin around 04:10 very much i mean i use the coinbase 04:12 debit card to buy stuff but that all of 04:13 that happens on coinbase so that doesn't 04:15 show up on the actual blockchain um and 04:18 i don't move uh bitcoin on or off uh 04:21 various bit keys very often because i 04:23 just you know i try not to do that i try 04:25 to keep it in cold storage keep my bit 04:27 keys in very safe very difficult to get 04:30 to places and they're difficult enough 04:32 to get to that i try to only move 04:34 bitcoin around when i really need to and 04:37 uh anyway so all that to say low what's 04:40 called low onchain activity doesn't 04:43 necessarily mean anything the total 04:45 number of people who are searching for 04:46 the word bitcoin on google doesn't 04:48 necessarily mean anything but typically 04:51 those things are a lot higher if the 04:54 market is about to go a lot higher 04:56 because there's just a lot of buzz so 04:58 there's amazingly little buzz in uh sort 05:02 of the online community right now around 05:04 bitcoin um again for people who follow 05:07 bitcoin like me obviously we're always 05:09 talking about it but for the general 05:11 population it's not a water cooler 05:14 discussion happening right now and 05:16 obviously the more it is the more people 05:18 buy bitcoin because they're hearing 05:20 about it so anyway again just to 05:22 reiterate i think there's a greater than 05:24 70% chance that we have very exciting 05:27 times ahead over the next five or six 05:29 months especially but even potentially 05:31 the next year um and i think there's a 05:33 less than 30% chance that we have to 05:36 live through sort of a brutal downturn 05:39 and just suck it up and live with it uh 05:42 for a little while while we wait for the 05:44 demand in the marketplace to catch up 05:46 and if we hit that uh you know time it's 05:50 obviously a great buying opportunity for 05:52 bitcoin uh but it's also painful to go 05:54 through nobody likes doing that nobody 05:56 likes going through a bitcoin bare 05:57 market um other than the people who are 05:60 purely in buy mode but most people are 06:02 only in buy mode on bitcoin in a bare 06:04 market if it's their second bare market 06:07 because most people need to see bitcoin 06:09 recover once themselves before they 06:12 trust that it will always recover again 06:13 in the future and once you've seen it 06:15 once you realize "oh i get it bitcoin 06:18 always does." 06:21 so if you want to understand all of this 06:23 the price cycles of bitcoin better read 06:25 vj boyat's book the bullish case for 06:28 bitcoin uh bullish as in b u l l i s the 06:33 bullish case for bitcoin by vj vi j a y 06:38 and i'm not going to try to pronounce 06:40 boya but it's vj boya with a b as in boy 06:44 uh anyway so pick up that book it's a 06:46 fantastic book you'll understand why 06:48 bitcoin behaves the way it does much 06:50 better after reading that book which 06:52 will make your comfort level much higher 06:54 with regard to bitcoin and uh anyway let 06:57 me know if you have any questions i am 06:59 here to serve i think you know the 07:01 future could be quite exciting and if 07:03 not it's going to be a prolonged buying 07:05 opportunity for those that are not 07:07 already 100% bitcoin like me so uh let 07:10 me know if you need anything send me 07:11 questions i love answering questions i'm 07:13 always available thank you everyone and 07:15 have a wonderful evening thanks