Why are $80,000, $85,000, and $95,000 so important for exiting this bear market?

Why are $80,000, $85,000, and $95,000 the critical level that Bitcoin needs to hit in order to be permanently and forever out of this bare market, and onto the next three plus years of bull market, which is up market, which is the fun part. Uh, unfortunately, to get the fun part now and then, like the last five months or whatever it's been, you got to go through a bare market, too, or maybe seven months. I guess technically the peak was uh October 6th and so I guess you know it's been a little longer but anyway uh it only took four months between October 6th and February 5th uh in order it was basically four months to go from the top to the bottom of the bear market and then we've been slowly climbing out for the last 3 months. So technically it's been seven months but only four of that it was actually going down the last three months it's been slowly grinding higher. All right. The reason those price levels are so important is, and James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst, talks this about this all the time, is because human behavior is relatively predictable. If you know how much of an asset somebody has and you know what price they paid for it, you can predict with some degree of certainty the things they are likely to do based on the human behavior of other humans at certain price levels. So, for example, we know based on when you can't you don't know who actually bought the Bitcoin, but you can tell in the world of Bitcoin based on the flows in and out of the Bitcoin ETFs as well as when Bitcoin changes hands on the Bitcoin blockchain. Now, you don't know who it is. It's all anonymous, but you can tell when, you know, stuff's getting moved around at different prices. Okay. So as a result of that, we have a a decent idea of the cost basis of different levels of people. We know what the average cost basis is of the Bitcoin ETFs. We know what the average cost basis is of Michael Sailor and his company strategy, Micro Strategy. We can tell, you know, every time a Bitcoin moves or a part of a Bitcoin moves on the Bitcoin blockchain, we can tell when that happened at the exact point in time and what the price of Bitcoin was at that exact point in time. And because we have that, we can make some relatively accurate predictions of how humans are going to behave based on that information. Uh let me get a drink and I'll explain what I mean. For example, we can tell that the cost basis I think of the Bitcoin ETFs is let's call it $80,000. We can tell at $85,000 there's a huge amount of trading activity that happened around that level when the Bitcoin price was falling from the initial fall down uh to the the low 80,000s um in November before it fell down into the 60s in February. So, we can look at those trading ranges where the most Bitcoin has changed hands and we can look at the various price levels where most people have Bitcoin and we can predict what they're going to do. not perfectly and it's a you know it's very hit or miss but for example I'm gonna I'm gonna super super super oversimplify this because this is how the whole market works the market for Bitcoin is made up of 400 million people 5% of the world population 400 million people buying and selling Bitcoin more and more every day but uh I'm going to radically oversimplify this let's assume the entire Bitcoin market was three people three of your friends and you wanted you wanted to know what was going to happen in Bitcoin let's assume one of them bought it at 80 $80,000. The next one bought it at $85,000 and the third friend bought it at $95,000. Now, maybe they bought it when it was going up. Maybe they bought it when it was going down. But you have three friends, and you know what their cost basises are. The cost basis means the average price they paid for their Bitcoin. Now, some people buy it at I bought Bitcoin at every price between 6,400 and 124. I bought Bitcoin at all the prices um or all the modern prices from 2027, you know, to the present or most of them. Um but you you can figure out what those people's cost basis is. So let's assume you have three prints. One with the cost basis at 80, one at 85 and one at 95. That basically represents the current Bitcoin market. Those were are where the clumps of people are where the most Bitcoin has changed hands because the price of Bitcoin stayed there the longest or the most people bought it when it was going up at that level or the most people bought it when it was going down at that level whatever or they bought it up and down meaning on the way up to 126 a lot of people bought it at 95 and then a lot on the way down from 12 26 uh a lot more people bought it but regardless let's assume our simplified economy has three people with three cost spaces 80 85 and 95 which is the actual cost basises of large components of the Bitcoin market right now. Well, if you could go and talk to those people and ask them what they plan to do when their Bitcoin was in the money, when their Bitcoin was up on their investment, when they were up on their investment, if you could find out from those three people what they plan to do, you could predict what the Bitcoin market was going to do, right? until you go to your friend at 80,000 and say, "Hey, if we get if Bitcoin stays above your cost basis, above $80,000 for a week or two, are you going to sell it or you going to hold on to it?" And if your friend says, "I'm going to hold on to it." Again, if that's the whole market, then you know we're going to clear $80,000 because your only friend that's considering selling their Bitcoin that would be in the money on their Bitcoin is that $80,000. Now, that doesn't The reason it's not completely predictable is your friend up at 85 or 95 could all of a sudden have a family emergency and dump their Bitcoin for no good reason. We don't know. But again, as we clear $80,000, we find out, are all the people at $80,000 waiting to sell their Bitcoin or are they planning to hold on? Chances are they're planning to hold on, but there's some chance that enough of them are planning to sell their Bitcoin that the price dumps one more time and then it keeps going up. So, if you went to your second friend and you said, "Hey, we just passed $80,000. You know, friend one says he's holding on to his Bitcoin. He hasn't sold it even though, you know, we're bouncing around to the low 80,000s for a week or two by the time that's the case. It hasn't been that long." And your your friend at 85 says, "You know, I think I'm going to hold on to my Bitcoin, too." It's like, "Oh, okay. So once we've been above 85 for a week or two, we've now confirmed that your friend at 85 is uh is going to hold on to his Bitcoin. He's not planning on dumping it, which is caused one last price dump before the price goes up again. In all scenarios, the price eventually goes up because Bitcoin is amazing. It has perfect monetary properties. You know, 95% of the world doesn't own any. The 5% that owns Bitcoin owns a tiny amount compared to their other assets for the most part. Other than people like me who have 100% Bitcoin exposure, but the vast majority of people don't have 100% Bitcoin exposure like I do, it's, you know, $200 on a net worth of, you know, 10,000 or something. It's just a small percent. Uh, I'm at 100%, but anyway. Okay. So, $95,000 is what James Czech calls the bull's la sorry, the bears last stand. $95,000 is the last cluster of people who are likely to sell or could sell or have a reasonable probability of selling when the price goes up. Which means if we clear your friend at 80 and your friend at 85, the last question is what is Mr. $95,000 going to do? What are what are they going to sell forcing one last price dip or is Mr. $95,000 going to hold on? Now again, I'm simplifying this market to literally three people that own Bitcoin with an average cost basis, meaning they bought it at an average price of 80, 85, and 95 because those are the in the broad market when you when you add up and you know blend and analyze the entire 400 million people that own Bitcoin, that's where most of the price uh uh action is, either 80, 85 or 95. So once we clear 95, we know that all of those people once we're above $95,000 for let's call it a week or two or some meaningful period of time. We now know that the majority of the people holding Bitcoin at $95,000 are also good. They're not about to panic sell, you know, etc., etc. Once we know those things, you know, the sky's is the limit. You know, according to James Czech, once we are solidly above $95,000 and we stay there for some reasonable period of time, again, that doesn't mean World War III can't mess us up or something like that. But, you know, Bitcoin is the best performing asset since the start of the Iran war. So, obviously, Bitcoin could do fine in, you know, hostile environments, um, you know, financially or otherwise. But that doesn't mean like an act, you know, obviously if there was some like nuclear war, you know, who knows what happens. Maybe Bitcoin goes to the moon, but maybe all assets dump as everybody like scrambles to buy bullets and, you know, I don't know, bread and bullets or whatever they say. But anyway, regardless, uh, if we can clear $95,000 uh, per Bitcoin, according to James Czech, that's the last line of defense. If the bears, meaning the people who are pessimistic about Bitcoin, if the bears cannot sell enough Bitcoin to push the price below 95 and keep it there, then we're out of this bare market. It means the bare market's over. It's the shallowest, the shortest bare market in Bitcoin's history and everybody's happy and the sky's is the limit, which, you know, based on price history would say we now get three plus years of the price going up most of the time instead of the last, you know, four of the last seven months when the price was going mostly down most of the time. So, uh it'd be pretty fantastic if it was the shallowest and least bad bare market Bitcoin's ever had. Uh that would be pretty fantastic. Uh but we don't know before we get out of this bare market. We have to clear all of the Bitcoin trans that was transacted around 80,000 and make sure those people can hold. We got to clear all the Bitcoin that was transacted around 85 and make sure those people are still going to hold. And we got to clear all the Bitcoin that was transacted around 95 and make sure that holds. If all of that holds, then according to James Czech, Bitcoin bare market is officially over. You know, we're off to the races. Sky's the limit. only a matter of time until the next Bitcoin all-time high above 126,000 and hopefully again hopefully we get mostly price going up for the next three years. That's been the historical Bitcoin price pattern which is about every four years you get a price correction and then after it you get three years of you know super fun best performing asset in the world. And obviously Bitcoin performs so well in the three up years that it completely dwarfs the downyear. Uh, I mean, that's why we're at $80,000 per Bitcoin and we started at zero because the price went up and up and up and up and then it went down some and then it went up and up and up and up and up and then went down some and then up and up and up and up and then went down some. Well, that's what happened from the low of 2022. It was at 15,500 and we went from 15,500 to 126 in the matter of 3 years. And guess what? Then we took a little breather and went from, you know, 126. We didn't go back down to 15 or 16,000. We went down to 660 60,000 6. So the floor was four times as high as the last floor, right? We went from 15.5,000, which is the low in 2022, up to 126. Then we went down a much more shallower amount down to 60. Stayed there almost no time at all. And then now we're back up at 80. And again, once we clear these three price levels, as long as uh as long as we don't trip on the hurdle each time, and if we do hit trip on the hurdle, that's fine. It just means we hit a price level, too many people decided that they were, you know, wanted to get out rather than hold. And then we just got to give it a little bit of time to clear those people out. That's fine. It just means instead of next three years of glory starting, you know, now, it means we got to experience another month or two of pain. So what? you know, maybe we have another month or two of pain, maybe a few more months of pain. I don't know. Hopefully not. Hopefully, we're in good shape. And hopefully 60,000 on February 5th was the bottom. And hopefully that means the next three years is going to be fantastic. And uh anyway, so that's where we are. That's the current, you know, lineup of the market. And as soon as we clear those price levels, we will be officially off to the races. Um so anyway, that is one second here. I want to change parking spots from where my Tesla decided to park me. I'm going to park somewhere slightly different. Um anyway, so uh once we clear those levels, according to James Czech, uh $80,000, $85,000 and ultimately $95,000. He calls $95,000 the bears last stand. If they can't hold the price below that, then it is off to the races. The fund starts again. we get hopefully three plus years of fund and then at some point I don't know in four years, three or four years from now, we got to go through another, you know, bare market. We don't know. Nobody knows the future. But same advice as always, buy as much Bitcoin as you can, hold on to it for as long as conceivably possible. It's a simple formula. It always works in the long term. And uh rock and roll. Simple as that. And uh we've already mostly cleared $80,000, but not really. We've been barely above 80,000 and we haven't been there long enough and consistently enough for me to say the first of the three hurdles is officially over. But, you know, we're we're we're pretty we're mostly through the first of the three hurdles. I would say we we're mostly through that, you know, excuse me, we're mostly through that $80,000 gate. Um, but that still leaves the $85,000 gate and the $95,000 gate. And heck, sometime it could be days, could be weeks, could be months, but we will clear those levels. And once we're through with the last of them, uh, according to James Czech, this Bitcoin bare market will be over and it'll be off to the races. And, you know, hopefully three plus years of fun, uh, holding the best performing asset in the world, which is, you know, great, great time to be doing that. So, have a great night everyone. X.