You think Bitcoin will go LOWER? Watch this

Do you think Bitcoin will go lower? Well, we are going to talk about this and we're going to talk about this and I'm going to explain both of them on this video. So, is it possible Bitcoin goes lower than the price today? Yes, it's possible. But people radically miss how much lower Bitcoin could go as compared to where it is today. So in order to understand this, we need to understand Q values which is basically percentiles and the percentile below Bitcoin's uh average price over time which is constantly trending up. So if you look at it, the price is constantly trending up and it goes above and then it goes below and then it goes above and then it goes below. Now we don't know what that trend is going to be in the future. Otherwise, we could tell whether Bitcoin was above or below that price. But when we look at the past, we can get a si good sense of where we are today and how much above or below that price we are today. So you can break down Bitcoin's entire price history, all 17.5 years, into a chart that looks like this. And in this chart, you have the entire history of Bitcoin's price. And you can tell how far below the average price of Bitcoin Bitcoin got at each of the lowest points. Okay? So if you go back down to 2011, it actually touched Q1, which means on a 100 point index of how low below the index it got to Q, sorry, Q1, Q2. That means it got to levels that it only spins between 1 and 2% of its life. In 2015, there were two dips. It got to Q3 and Q4, which means levels that on a 100 point index are at the third and fifth level of the lowest it ever gets off the average. In 2018 and 2020, it hit Q4, meaning the lowest 4% of trading days. And in 2022, there were two dips. One hit Q4, one hit Q5. Okay? So, what that means is if you want to get the biggest discount in Bitcoin's history, you got to go back to the beginning. If you want Q1 and Q2 values, you got to get to 2011. Now, here's the idiotic thing. if you go all over Twitter. So, these are the Q values. I think it's going to be mirrored, so you won't be able to see them, but these are the Q values of probabilities right now at various price points. I'll walk you through those. So, people on Twitter are like, I'm waiting for $40,000. I'm waiting for $45,000. But think about this. $40,000 Bitcoin is a Q1 event. Now, we have not had a Q1 event in Bitcoin since 2011. So, you're telling me that we're going to have an event in 2026, worse than FTX in 2022, worse than the COVID crash of 2020, worse than the lowest points in 2018, 2015. You're telling me we're going to go as low in 2026 as the lowest average off of the re sort of the average as 2011? That is frankly idiotic thinking. If you think we're going to get a Q1 or a Q2 event at either 40,000 or 45, you are smoking something. I mean, the Senate Banking Committee just passed the Clarity Act yesterday. Now, it goes to a full vote in the Senate. The votes are there in the Senate. The votes are there in the House. The president says he'll sign it. The Clarity Act is almost certainly going to get signed into law. There are no big uh you know Ponzi schemes, rugps, uh fraud. There is none of the fraud in the industry broadly, certainly not in Bitcoin as existed in 2022. We don't have another co event, although there could always be a World War III. We're not going back to 2011 mean reversion stuff, which means you you can basically write off 40,000 and 45,000 as numbers we're never going to touch. Okay. What about 50,000? 50,000 is a Q3 event. We have not had a Q3 event since the beginning of 2015. 2015, more than 10 freaking years ago. So, you think we're going to go back and have a down tick? That's as bad as literally 11 years ago. I mean, come on. That's not going to happen. Now, the next level would be 54,000. 54,000 is a Q5 event. The most recent of those was in 2022. But remember, we had FTX blow up on top of Luna blow up. Ter Terra Luna, BlockFi, Celsius, Voyager. Um, I mean, a huge part of the crypto ecosystem completely melted down in 2022 and dragged Bitcoin with it. So, yes, in 2022, we did have a Q5 event. Um, we had got that low as a result of just a confluence of of of factors. None of those factors exist today. We don't have fraud in the industry like 2022 in the crypto industry. We don't have any of that. So, if you're banking on $54,000 Bitcoin, again, I just don't see us ever seeing that. Even if we dip again, it's just you're dreaming in my opinion. All right. So, how low was 60,000? 60,000 was a Q10 event. But if you look at these events over time, they're all marching up, right? So, in the beginning, we have a Q2 event. Q1, Q2, then we have Q3, then we have Q4, Q4, Q4, Q5. Like the trend is upwards. As Bitcoin matures, it drops less as compared to an average. It overshoots less compared to the average. It undersshoots less compared to the average. So the low on February 5th of uh of $60,000, if somebody said, "Is that the low?" I would say, "I think that's the low." greater than 80% chance that's the lowest it'll ever be again. Period. Like we're never going to see that number again. The market already bottomed on February 5th and we're off to the races. And we're going to mostly go up for the next three years with, you know, gut-wrenching 20 or 30% pullbacks every so often just to remind you that this is still Bitcoin and that you are still early and that you don't get a free ride. But again, there's no reason to go back to a Q5, Q3, Q2, Q1 event below 60,000. Those numbers are were only ever put in when the Bitcoin ecosystem was radically younger, radically less mature. I mean, just it was just different back then. Um, so I will post this image and if you zoom in on this image in the upper corner of that image is right there, which is exactly the same thing. This is just a blow up of the exact same thing, but I wanted to uh I'll post it to the bottom underneath this video, but the short thing is I think the bottom's already in. The lowest anybody realistically bought Bitcoin in the dip was, you know, 65 to 67,000 because it spent so little time below 67,000. Almost nobody bought it for less than 67,000 anyway. Here we are at 79,000. That's not that different than 67,000. In the long term, it won't matter. And if I were you and if I had US dollars I had not already con uh you know invested in Bitcoin, I would invest them in Bitcoin right now. I don't. So I'm not because I'm 100% Bitcoin. I have 100% of my liquid assets in Bitcoin. I have 100% of my retirement in Bitcoin. My wife does have some non- Bitcoin assets in her name that serve as a non- Bitcoin emergency fund, but that is a small percentage of our total assets. 100% of the assets that I own or control that I could possibly have in Bitcoin and any form, those all are already in Bitcoin like right now. So, uh I think Bitcoin's on sale. I'm shocked it's not higher given the positive regulatory environment in Washington DC and everything else that is going on. But that's just an opportunity for you to buy it on sale. It's that simple. But again, don't be a fool. Don't assume we're going to go back to Q1, Q2, 2011 events. Not going to happen. And again, we're just not going back to these type of numbers. Those type of numbers are gone. So, look at the price of Bitcoin Dow. It's not that much higher than a reasonable, you know, the bottoming, you know, mid to high 60,000, which is kind of the lowest that most people bought any in the most recent dip. And you're only $10,000 higher than that. Pretty small percentage. You can buy Bitcoin for cheap right now. It's that simple. And if I could buy more Bitcoin, I would. If I had US dollars, they would be in Bitcoin right now. And I don't think we're going to revisit 60,000. I don't even think we're going to revisit 65,000. I could be wrong, but again, we're just dealing with the downside is very limited here because we're not going back to 2015. We're not going back to 2011 or the numbers that were reflected in those time periods. Those are the past. And I think this cycle the lowest we ever bottomed was a Q10 event which is you know 10th percentile on zero to 100 of how low below the average we can go. It gets smaller over time. Seems logical to me that 60,000 a Q10 event probably was the lowest we're going. And even James Czech says there's a greater than 80% chance that 60,000 was the bottom on February 5th and we're never going to touch it ever again. So hopefully all that helps. I'm here if you got any questions. Let me know. bikes.